In that scenario, it doesn’t matter how much automation is in place. Demand has no way to keep up with supply. The difficulty in my mind is that these economic positions are so far apart from one another that it is impossible to see how they can be resolved without some kind of cataclysmic event. In the book, Ford says that: …professional economists – all of whom have access to the same objective data – are completely unable to agree on what I would characterize as an extraordinarily fundamental economic question: Is a demand shortfall holding back economic growth and if so, is income inequality an important contributor to the problem?…in the field of economics, the opinions all too often break cleanly along predefined political ones…In other words, if you’re waiting for the economists to deliver some sort of definitive verdict on the impact that advancing technology is having on the economy, you may have a very long wait. Ford considers a variety of possible scenarios, including the possibility of the dystopian future illustrated in Elysium . While possible, it’s not an image I want to entertain with any degree of enthusiasm. Does Ford have a solution? Sadly, he doesn’t offer much beyond the sop of a Universal Basic Income as a way of at least alleviating rising inequality. You can read plenty of debates around this hotly debated topic. Here, I believe the WSJ’s Greg Ip sets the scene nicely but comes to some nutty conclusions alongside an economic doomsday scenario. I have no position on this other than to postulate that however disagreeable to many, UBI may be the only short term measure that stimulates demand while partially redressing the inequality issue. Ford goes on to talk about topics like wealth redistribution, the need for retraining, access to education and the requirements of a burgeoning healthcare industry.
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